The 2009 Convergence Report from Olswang has been released, and makes for interesting reading. Some of the key findings I took out/inferred include:
- Over the top TV (such as Project Canvas) will only take off through inertia and a shorter upgrade cycle
- Unless e-readers become cheap fast, they will be superseded by multi-functional tablet computers
- Windowing (phased international release dates) is more of a threat than an opportunity, due to the difficulties it presents with existing distribution channels
- iPhone users have much greater willingness to pay – and this is more down to the easy payment mechanism than level of disposable income
- Micropayments are more viable for TV than newspapers
While the third point is somewhat contentious, the other four points make intuitive sense, and correspond to the research I have carried out in the area.
However, the survey was conducted online using a panel. I absolutely agree that this is the best, most cost-effective approach but it does skew the data – particularly with respect to online/digital behaviour. There is no mention in the report of sampling and weighting.
I can understand why – this stuff can be quite boring – but without it I’m left looking at figures such as
- 8% of the sample owning iPhones
- 38% of people streaming music
- 65% of adults using social network sites
And then wondering what other data and findings in the report are overinflated
Nevertheless, a thought-provoking read and a useful – if flawed – resource to refer to.